ALG was engaged by Kenya’s Ministry of National Treasury and Planning to provide consultancy services for the development of an aviation policy for Kenya, and to review the proposed medium-term investment requirements for enhancing its aviation infrastructure and related services, particularly at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi.
The aviation sector is a major contributor to Kenya’s economy as well as a key enabler of its future development as an economic and social leader in Africa. As one of the most visited countries in eastern Africa, aviation is essential for the tourism industry and to connect the country with the rest of the world, strengthening trading ties and generating new business opportunities.
In 2019, Kenya registered its highest-ever number of air traffic passengers, with over 12 million annual passengers, of which 7 million were from outside the country. Air transport, therefore, serves as the main point of entry for international arrivals in Kenya.
This sector is supported by an extensive network of more than 440 airports and airfields throughout the country, 18 of which are actively managed by the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA).
However, the aviation sector in Kenya is not limited to air passenger transport. It also includes a varied range of other aviation-related activities, such as maintenance of light and large aircraft, aviation schools and cargo transport. These activities support the air transport industry and also enable other sectors to benefit from a well-developed network for trading goods and services with other countries.
Objectives, goals and purposes
Kenya‘s economy has grown steadily over recent decades, due to both population growth and economic development, becoming one of the largest economies in the region. The country’s aviation market has benefited from this economic development, reaching around 12 Mpax in 2019. Kenya’s economic development is expected to continue boosting the aviation sector driven by the government’s Vision 2030.
Kenya’s population is expected to almost double in the next 30 years, reaching more than 90 million by 2050. This, in tandem with higher purchasing power, is likely to foster organic growth in demand for air travel.
Transport infrastructure is central to Kenya being able to achieve its Vision 2030, which aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy.
Infrastructure is also a key enabler. Economic growth will only accelerate if Kenya increases the quantity and quality of its infrastructure. The fall in traffic due to COVID-19 is an opportunity to reassess investment requirements, explore financing options, and prepare the infrastructure and services for future demand.
Kenya has a vibrant and viable aviation industry. This is vital for the country’s development, through the provision of air transport services and facilitation of tourism, and through promotion of major new economic sectors, such as flowers and fresh horticultural exports.
The overall objective of this project is to define the long-term development goals of Kenya’s aviation sector, in order to deliver a policy that contributes to the sector being prepared and sustainable. Through the development of its aviation policy, Kenya will create an enabling environment and lay the foundations for industrial growth.
This assignment is divided into two interdependent tasks:
- Task A. Development of a national aviation policy for Kenya.
- Task B. Review the medium-term investment requirements of the KAA against a longer-term sustainable solution.
The National Aviation Policy task aims to develop a set of policies to enable the national aviation industry to strengthen its position in the global market.
The main objectives of the National Aviation Policy include:
- Enhance Kenya’s connectivity at the national and international levels by ensuring safe, secure, and competitive access that is responsive to the needs of business, tourism and the population.
- Foster the growth of aviation in Kenya to support job creation and improvements in working conditions by positioning Kenya as a recognised regional leader in aviation.
- Maximise the contribution of the aviation sector to Kenya’s economic growth and development.
The objective of task B is to review the investment requirements of the KAA airport network, with a particular focus on Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. The results of this assignment will contribute to establishing firm foundations for future Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) projects in the aviation sub-sector.
The Government of Kenya (GoK) has established a preference for PPPs as the mechanism to help develop and manage the assets and provision of services needed to address the major infrastructure gaps in the country.
Study methodology and activities
This project is intended to define the long-term development goals of the aviation sub-sector in order to devise a policy that will enable a well-governed and sustainable sector.
The main issues, constraints and challenges facing the aviation sector have been identified, together with the opportunities. Based on this, a policy has been drafted that will lead to an efficient, well governed, competitive, environmentally friendly, safe and secure aviation sub-sector.
We have done this drawing on account international best practices and our vast experience in the industry, which we have adapted to the local context. This has resulted in a tailored solution offering realistic implementation and maximising the contribution of the civil aviation sub-sector to Kenya’s economic and social development.
The scope of work includes:
Task A
- Analysis of the current situation and identification of gaps, including:
○ Review of the legal and regulatory framework.
○ Analysis of international engagement.
○ Review of aviation policies.
○ Organisational and operational reviews.
○ Financial review.
○ International benchmarking.
○ Analysis of the PPP framework.
- Policy formulation.
- Stakeholder engagement and consultation.
- Final definition of the National Aviation Policy.
Task B
- Assessment of the air traffic market.
- Forecasting of long-term air traffic demand.
- Infrastructure assessment including definition of the current situation, compliance analysis and capacity-demand analysis.
- Definition of an investment plan to provide the capacity required to meet the expected demand.
- Identification of financing mechanisms, including business plans and financial modelling (bundling sensitivities of options).
- Review of financial sustainability and development of the final option.
Key findings and recommendations
The engagement and interest of all the stakeholders we met during our missions to Kenya and in our virtual meetings has been remarkable. The feedback of the stakeholders has been of paramount importance in ensuring the success of the project.
Success and outcomes
During the last mission, the main conclusions were presented in workshops, and stakeholders’ feedback was received. After incorporating such feedback, the air transport policy was redacted and recommendations to the Cabinet of Kenya regarding both the air transport policy and the infrastructure requirements for KAA airports network were issued.